Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 93.2%En tête parmi 4 options
No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 93.2%Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète18 mai 26, 06:29 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill I (robm) agree with the resolution to the 2028 AI generated movie market?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official "Top 10" lists published by Netflix at top10.netflix.com.
- A movie will be considered "AI-generated" if it is primarily marketed as such or if reputable industry reporting (e.g., Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline) confirms that the film's core visuals, script, or animation were produced predominantly by generative AI tools.
- Yes, in Q1 2026: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between January 1, 2026, and March 31, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between April 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between July 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026.