Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.2%
Prévisionnistes
105
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard9 févr. 23, 15:48 UTC31 déc. 29, 22:01 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Nirvanna The Band The Show The Movie be nominated for an Oscar?
Manifold MarketsWill the Legend of Zelda movie be nominated for an Oscar in any category?
Manifold MarketsMidjourney is credited by name in a movie which is nominated for an Oscar before 4/2028
Manifold MarketsWill Exit 8 be nominated for an Oscar in any category?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiRègles
Market resolves to YES if:
- At least one movie with footage that is entirely generated by a text-to-video AI is nominated for an Oscar before 2030.
- Everything else can be done by humans, including music score, script-writing, dialogue and editing, provided all of the original footage is AI-generated.
- The movie can be nominated in any category.
- Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:01 am