Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
IAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72%
Prévisionnistes
66
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 minutes
19 juin 22, 02:06 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
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Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsWill Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?
Manifold MarketsWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRègles
Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has extended the market close date to 2027 (instead of resolving N/A due to no submissions by the original deadline).