Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 51.3% au 27 octobre 2026.

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

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Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 51.3%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

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Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 2 heures

Obsolète

16 janv. 24, 16:14 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge".

It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good.
The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
Has to be be at least 50,000 words.
I will not trade in this market.