Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.7%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète19 mars 26, 13:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill "Announcing: OpenAI's Alignment Research Blog" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold Markets#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of November?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Polymarket#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if a frontier AI company publicly announces or is credibly reported to have hired, contracted, or established a formal advisory relationship with a theologian or religious body specifically in connection with AI safety or alignment research.
- Conference panels and casual conversations do not count.
- Hiring someone who happens to have a theology degree does not count.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
- Resolution = Expiry.
