Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète14 août 26, 01:17 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank of Argentina, will it cause a recession or financial crisis?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next US recession be?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the next US recession begin?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiRecession this year?
KalshiRègles
Has to be an event or consequence caused by AI that then leads to a recession.
- So a major hack of the big banks that causes a panic that leads to a recession would count.
- Also AI replacing so many jobs that there is mass unemployment that leads to a recession would also count.
- However, a simple bubble burst of AI stock leading to a recession would NOT count, as that is not AI doing an act that causes the recession; has to be a recession that results from AI actions or consequences of AI implementation.
- As recessions can have multiple causes, it just needs to be frequently cited as one of the primary causes based on media and scholarly understanding.
- I will make a judgment call if open to debate.
