Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 64.4%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 24, 08:41 UTC2 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will operate the largest AI datacenter campus at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This question resolves yes if there is credible reporting of an incident of sabotage, between September 2024 and December 2028 inclusive, of a datacenter used for AI training or inference in the US (or dedicated power infrastructure for such a datacenter) resulting in either $100M+ in physical damages to the datacenter (and/or its dedicated power infrastructure), or a 2+ month delay in the facility's effective use of at least 50,000 H100 (or better) GPUs.
- In particular, for an incident to count as sabotage, the following must be widely believed:
- The incident was the result of a premeditated, malicious action by some party, rather than an accident.
- Damaging AI-relevant infrastructure was a primary motivation of the incident, such that the damage to AI-relevant infrastructure appeared to be targeted rather than incidental.
- For example, large-scale attacks on critical infrastructure wouldn't count if there is scant evidence that the responsible party was not primarily interested in damaging AI-relevant infrastructure.
- To determine whether this condition is met, I'll gauge the extent to which reporting characterizes AI-relevant infrastructure as the target of such an attack.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will an AI datacenter in the US be sabotaged before 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This question resolves yes if there is credible reporting of an incident of sabotage, between September 2024 and December 2028 inclusive, of a datacenter used for AI training or inference in the US (or dedicated power infrastructure for such a datacenter) resulting in either $100M+ in physical damages to the datacenter (and/or its dedicated power infrastructure), or a 2+ month delay in the facility's effective use of at least 50,000 H100 (or better) GPUs.