Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.2%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 24, 08:41 UTC2 janv. 29, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
This question resolves yes if there is credible reporting of an incident of sabotage, between September 2024 and December 2028 inclusive, of a datacenter used for AI training or inference in the US (or dedicated power infrastructure for such a datacenter) resulting in either $100M+ in physical damages to the datacenter (and/or its dedicated power infrastructure), or a 2+ month delay in the facility's effective use of at least 50,000 H100 (or better) GPUs.
- In particular, for an incident to count as sabotage, the following must be widely believed:
- The incident was the result of a premeditated, malicious action by some party, rather than an accident.
- Damaging AI-relevant infrastructure was a primary motivation of the incident, such that the damage to AI-relevant infrastructure appeared to be targeted rather than incidental.
- For example, large-scale attacks on critical infrastructure wouldn't count if there is scant evidence that the responsible party was not primarily interested in damaging AI-relevant infrastructure.
- To determine whether this condition is met, I'll gauge the extent to which reporting characterizes AI-relevant infrastructure as the target of such an attack.