Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 89.4%
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70
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète2 déc. 23, 05:39 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel.
- Be at least 60,000 words.
- Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.
- Not have obvious continuity errors.
- Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction.
- (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine.