Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.8%
Prévisionnistes
3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète15 juin 26, 03:37 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketWill Anthropic release a new Claude Fable model before November 5, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post American Government Takes Down Claude Fable is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
