Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 66.8%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète3 sept. 26, 21:21 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsWill "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsGPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
PolymarketWhich models will GPT-6 Astra be higher than on arena.ai agent arena on the 12th September?
Manifold MarketsGPT 6 Astra debut arena score
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).
- https://epoch.ai/benchmarks?view=graph&tab=eci
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume total
- 125,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 55 k €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 67% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).