Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 61.8%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard20 janv. 26, 14:06 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alibaba's research team (from any of their labs) officially open-sources a music generation AI model in 2026.
- The model must be released under an open license (something like Qwen) and weights made publicly available on platforms such as Hugging Face or ModelScope.
- Resolution will be verified through official Alibaba announcements, press releases, or documentation from these platforms.
- The model must be released on or before December 31, 2026.