Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète20 janv. 26, 14:06 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Manifold MarketsTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Alibaba's research team (from any of their labs) officially open-sources a music generation AI model in 2026.
- The model must be released under an open license (something like Qwen) and weights made publicly available on platforms such as Hugging Face or ModelScope.
- Resolution will be verified through official Alibaba announcements, press releases, or documentation from these platforms.
- The model must be released on or before December 31, 2026.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria