Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.5%
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète25 mai 23, 17:47 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
Manifold MarketsWill a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
Lately it seems like there's been a bunch of people taking big AI risks seriously, from OpenAI's Governance of superintelligence to Deepmind's Model evaluation for extreme risks.
- We're not quite there yet in terms of my standards for safety, and even less there in terms of e.g. Eliezer Yudkowsky's.
- However I wonder if this marks a turning point.
- Obviously this is a very subjective question, so I am warning you ahead of time that it is going to resolve in opinionated ways.
- Trying to anchor the discussion, I expect the following to be necessary for a YES resolution:
- Major leading AI companies openly acknowledge that existential risk is a possibility, not just in a marginal sense (e.g. internal discussion of it by employees, rare cases where the leaders begrudgingly admit it) but also in a central sense (e.g. openly having research teams working on it, having long sections of documents for politicians discussing it).