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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
Manifold Markets

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IATechScienceYearly23a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
2026 0%
En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes

31

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 jours

Obsolète
11 août 25, 16:111 janv. 50, 22:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

202721%

Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Marchés Associés

Manifold Markets

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

90,7 €
Oui: 53.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

62 €
Oui: 33%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

10,6 €
Oui: 82%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

433,1 €
Oui: 96.1%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

0 €
At least 25: 91%KalshiKALSHI
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

1,9 k €
Oui: 6%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$62,604.58+2.36%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.42%EthereumETH$1,650.76+1.70%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.77%BNBBNB$594.25+1.58%XRPXRP$1.12+0.22%

Actualités Associées

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Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

Manifold Markets
  • If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
  • The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
  • It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
  • If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
  • If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.