Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IA Tech ScienceYearly23a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

2026 0%

En tête parmi 15 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 14 heures

Obsolète

11 août 25, 16:111 janv. 50, 22:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

202799%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Tendance du volume

$1.5k

20 juil.6j de données25 juil.

Marchés Associés

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

0 €

Oui: 57.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

219,8 €

Oui: 95.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

189,4 €

Oui: 51%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

0 €

At least 25: 90%

KALSHI

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

0 €

Oui: 70%

POLYMARKET

Best AI at the end of 2026?

15,9 k €

Claude: 64%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$64,494.29+0.67%

EthereumETH$1,887.40+1.60%

SolanaSOL$75.01+1.50%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0734+5.75%

BNBBNB$570.87+0.89%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.01%

Actualités Associées

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Will AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?

IA Tech ScienceYearly23a

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

2026 0%

En tête parmi 15 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 14 heures

Obsolète

11 août 25, 16:111 janv. 50, 22:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier

Résultat choisi

202799%

Mise (USDT)

Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.

Tendance du volume

$1.5k

20 juil.6j de données25 juil.

Marchés Associés

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

0 €

Oui: 57.7%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be a Metagame 2026?

219,8 €

Oui: 95.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

189,4 €

Oui: 51%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

0 €

At least 25: 90%

KALSHI

$AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?$

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?

0 €

Oui: 70%

POLYMARKET

Best AI at the end of 2026?

15,9 k €

Claude: 64%

KALSHI

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$64,494.29+0.67%

EthereumETH$1,887.40+1.60%

SolanaSOL$75.01+1.50%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0734+5.75%

BNBBNB$570.87+0.89%

XRPXRP$1.10+1.01%

Actualités Associées

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Règles

The definition of major conjecture for the purposes of this market is one of the 129 "open problems" in this Wikipedia article as of 1 August 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conjectures

If a valid proof found by an AI is posted, then all years after the posting date will resolve YES.
The proof has to be accepted by a majority of the mathematical community (this market will stay open for a significant amount of time after a claimed proof to allow for disputes to arise).
It does not count if the problem was solved by a human beforehand.
If the proof was a human-AI collaboration, that is likely not sufficient for a YES-resolution, unless an overwhelming amount of the work (>90%) was done by the AI.
If the AI produces an essentially complete proof, but humans reformulate the proof into easier-to-read prose, that would be sufficient.