Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

One-OffIA

Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Ce marché s'est résolu: No (98.3%)

Résolu: 10 août 2026, 14:58

Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur

CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 98.3%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 jours

Obsolète

6 sept. 23, 17:0431 juil. 26, 21:59

Chronologie des Probabilités

Yes1.7%

No98.3%

Non

98.3%

Oui

1.7%

Règles

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” To do so, it would need to go far beyond outlining a strategy and drafting some copy, as current systems like GPT-4 are so good at doing.
It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns.
It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight.
You would still need a human to approve various points, open a bank account, actually sign on the dotted line.
But the work would all be done by an AI.

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

One-OffIA

Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Ce marché s'est résolu: No (98.3%)

Résolu: 10 août 2026, 14:58

Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur

CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 98.3%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 jours

Obsolète

6 sept. 23, 17:0431 juil. 26, 21:59

Chronologie des Probabilités

Yes1.7%

No98.3%

Non

98.3%

Oui

1.7%

Règles

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” To do so, it would need to go far beyond outlining a strategy and drafting some copy, as current systems like GPT-4 are so good at doing.
It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns.
It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight.
You would still need a human to approve various points, open a bank account, actually sign on the dotted line.
But the work would all be done by an AI.

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 11 août 2026.
Quand Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months? doit être résolu le 31 juillet 2026.
Comment Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Questions fréquentes

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