Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 96.1%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 minutes
1 juil. 23, 13:47 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?
Manifold Marketswill a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
- this one is for 2028
- Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
- https://unlocked.microsoft.com/ai-anthology/terence-tao/