Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 22 heures
Obsolète24 juil. 26, 14:59 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.
- If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own.
- If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A. I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation
- context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq
