Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.6%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète24 juil. 26, 14:59 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill "Agent Foundations Reminds Me of Continental P..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Manifold MarketsWill "Agent foundations: not really math, not reall..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if either John Wentworth, Thane Ruthenis, or David Lorell publicly states something to the effect of "AI did something novel/surprising/non-obvious" regarding their own or field-adjacent agent-foundations work, ORN.
- If ambiguous, I will personally message the named people for them to resolve this market on their own.
- If I couldn't reach out to them, or they somehow disagree with each other, I will resolve N/A. I may modify this market's description within 48 hours after market creation
- context: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gko3r6hvkSXrbDFPD/ai-for-agent-foundations-etc?commentId=JgyrFpenpLukwrqhq