Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67%
Prévisionnistes
80
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète6 avr. 23, 14:21 UTC1 janv. 30, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI successfully defend or prosecute someone in court before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill an AI be successfully trained to play Populous The Beginning multiplayer based on bottom-up data (like video training data) by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
If the human can review the edit and choose to stop it before it's published, then it doesn't count.
- English Wikipedia, mainspace.
- Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve YES, it must be known that the edit was made by an AI.