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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Manifold MarketsWill a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
Manifold MarketsIf another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
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PolymarketRègles
The half-baked idea occurred to me the other day that a catastrophic geomagnetic storm that ruins all our electronics might be the closest thing we could get to an Eliezer Yudkowsky style 'pivotal act' to prevent AI doom comparable to his example of 'burn all CPUs'.
- For brief context, the Carrington Event geomagnetic storm hit Earth in the 1800s, and a similar sized storm narrowly missed Earth in 2012.
- By 'at least as powerful as', I mean in terms of multiple physical properties of the storm (speed, mass, magnetic field warping etc).
