Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.1%
Prévisionnistes
106
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète2 juil. 23, 02:33 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.
- This includes both stealth trans Republicans and closeted trans Republicans.
- This market resolves NO if no Republican who is in office comes out as trans, either on the campaign trail or after their term has completed.
- Edit: Removed the word currently to remove ambiguity and bring into better alignment with the question.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.