Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 69.5%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 22, 20:22 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?
Manifold MarketsWill a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRègles
A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.
- It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild.
- Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greater threat to humans.
- (If there's a tradeoff involved, it must have become more of a threat on at least one axis.
- For example, if smallpox is modified to be more deadly but less transmissible, that qualifies.)
- If there are significant doubts as to whether the pathogen originated in a laboratory or in the wild, it does not qualify.
