Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleAngela Rayner is not Prime Minister at the end of 2026 99%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète15 mai 26, 13:10 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Angela Rayner be Prime Minister of the UK before December?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Combined conditional market on Rayner becoming PM and who she picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if she does.
- Please only add Labour MPs as options.
- (Use the "Other" option if you think a non-Labour MP (other than Burnham) might get the job.) I don't think there are any circumstances under which this market can resolve NA.
- If you have an edge case that I haven't covered in the small print, please let me know.
- Resolves to "Current Role Holder" on this page:
- https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Angela Rayner is not Prime Minister at the end of 2026 à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Combined conditional market on Rayner becoming PM and who she picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if she does.