Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released?
IA4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. 23.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète19 déc. 23, 18:43 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
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Manifold MarketsWill we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.
- If I believe with 90%+ confidence that one of these conditions has been met first, including in testing or training of an unreleased system, even if that capability is not available to the public, I will pick that as the winner.
- If the same system does more than one of them at the same time, and it is unclear which one came first, I will choose the one whose requirements I feel was most impressively exceeded, so as to pick one winner.
- If a model would be High risk under a definition, but is not due to mitigations taken, then that counts as high risk, even if all publicly available versions have mitigations in place.
- If we have no knowledge of any success of any such threshold by 1 Jan 2030, then that answer wins, to ensure this eventually resolves.
- The system that does this can be made by anyone, not only OpenAI.
Marchés ouverts
AI
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- ChatGPT22.8%
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+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-1.0pt62.6%
- 2027-1.5pt30.3%
- 2026-2.5pt7.1%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-5-high-2.0pt4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
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- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-18.0pt11%
+4 résultats de plus
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
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- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Can execute open-ended, novel ML tasks on a production ML codebase that would constitute a significant step on the critical path to model self--improvement. à 24% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Which High-risk threshold as defined by OpenAI will be reached first by an LLM, whether or not that LLM is released? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Thresholds as listed in: https://cdn.openai.com/openai-preparedness-framework-beta.pdf, exact definitions listed there on December 19, 2023 to be used.