Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
12.0 pts (24h)One-OffWeather22jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBelow 4.6 million km² 99%+12.0ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+17.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
24 août 26, 17:28 UTC1 oct. 26, 16:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Arctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the average minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span?
KalshiRègles
Each answer resolves independently.
- An answer resolves YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center records at least one qualifying daily Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below that answer's threshold.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.
- The measurement is the lowest individual daily Extent value in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for dates from December 19, 2025 through October 1, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- A value exactly equal to a threshold does not count as below it.
- Use the data available at 10:00 AM ET on October 7, 2026; later revisions are ignored.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 232,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 227,3 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 186,1 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume total
- 66,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 28,6 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Below 4.6 million km² à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Each answer resolves independently.