Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard23 avr. 23, 12:06 UTC31 déc. 50, 22:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
Manifold MarketsWill the north pole be ice free by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold Markets(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWhere will it rain on Oct 24, 2026?
KalshiRègles
This question will resolve as YES if the Arctic region experiences an ice-free summer by the year 2050.
- An ice-free summer is defined as a period of at least five consecutive days during which the Arctic sea ice extent is less than one million square kilometers, as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
- The NSIDC uses a 30-year baseline (1981-2010) to calculate average sea ice extent, and an ice-free summer would represent a significant departure from this baseline.
- The question will resolve as NO if the Arctic region does not experience an ice-free summer by the year 2050, or if the data is inconclusive.