Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
WeatherOne-OffTrade PolicyMacro & EconomyManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 67.6%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète31 août 23, 17:01 UTC1 janv. 50, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
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PolymarketLowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026
KalshiMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.
- Though there is much alarm being raised about that, there is also interest in opening up the Arctic sea routes to commercial traffic via initiatives such as the Polar Silk Road.
- But, how much seaborne traffic is it likely to contribute by 2050?
- Will resolve as "Yes" if by 2050 more than 20% of all transoceanic freight is routed through the Arctic.
- Else it will resolve "No".
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 68% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2050.
- Comment Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Rising global temperatures over the past few decades have caused a significant reduction in arctic sea ice, so much so that as soon as the next decade, the Arctic may well be ice free during the summer.