Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleRo Khanna 81.7%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-8.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète9 juin 26, 07:25 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWho will run for President of the United States in 2028?
Manifold Markets🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWhich of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?
PolymarketWill Rubio and Vance run for President?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market is an independent multiple-choice market.
- Each option representing an individual candidate will resolve independently to YES or NO based on whether that individual officially runs for President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle.
- YES Resolution: An individual will resolve to YES if they publicly announce their candidacy for President of the United States for the 2028 election, or if they formally file a Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
- NO Resolution: If an individual does not officially declare candidacy or file a Form 2, they will resolve to NO.
- Exploratory Committees: Simply launching a presidential exploratory committee does not qualify as running unless followed by an official declaration of candidacy or an FEC Form 2 filing.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.1pt60.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt38.6%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt1%
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- Volume total
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POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.3pt13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59.8%
- D-House, R-Senate29.4%
- Republicans sweep+0.4pt9.8%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
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KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-6.0pt56.4%
- Nithya Raman+7.0pt43.6%
- Volume total
- 28,9 M €
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- 523,8 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.2pt90.1%
- Republican Party+0.4pt9.9%
- Volume total
- 30,1 M €
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- 493,5 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Ro Khanna à 81.7% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Which 2026 NEWSMAKER will run for president in 2028 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria