Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2028 27.9%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+16.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète6 sept. 26, 23:44 UTC1 janv. 37, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US national debt be above $40 trillion by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill US gross federal debt reach $41 trillion before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US national debt reach $50 trillion by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US fiscal deficit be slashed by 1 trillion USD in the Fiscal Year 2026?
FutuurUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketWill the US National Debt exceed $47 Trillion by the end of FY 2030?
ForecastExRègles
This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).
- The official source of truth is the "Debt to the Penny" dataset published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Fiscal Data website: Debt to the Penny | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data .
- Metric: The specific data field to determine the resolution is Total Public Debt Outstanding.
- Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the exact date listed in the "Record Date" column of the first Treasury entry displaying a value of $50,000,000,000,000.00 or greater.
- The U.S. national debt officially crossed the $40 trillion threshold on August 18, 2026, several years ahead of initial Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections.
- This rapid escalation has been fueled by persistent budget deficits, high interest rates, and growing mandatory spending.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 323,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 523 k €
- Volume 24h
- 22 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4 k €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2028 à 28% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2037.
- Comment When will U.S. debt hit 50 trillion USD? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to the first Record Date on which the Total Public Debt Outstanding of the United States reaches or exceeds $50,000,000,000,000.00 ($50 trillion USD).