Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027 48%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+15.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 26, 08:30 UTC31 déc. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.
- A "crash" is understood to be a more than 15% downward correction in the market within a week where the Economist (as proxy for good punditry) writes that this is mostly or exclusively due to changing believes in AI and AI-fuelled valuations.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 269,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 199,9 k €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 107,5 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 85 k €
- Volume 24h
- 65,3 k €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will the AI bubble crash? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2027 à 48% au 22 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will the AI bubble crash? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will the AI bubble crash? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment When will the AI bubble crash? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.