Prévision communautaire actuelle
By end of December 2028 87.1%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète11 mars 24, 08:27 UTC1 janv. 27, 12:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketRègles
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.