Prévision communautaire actuelle
By end of December 2028 87.1%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète11 mars 24, 08:27 UTC1 janv. 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiRègles
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? ?
- Manifold Markets cote By end of December 2028 à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit