Prévision communautaire actuelle
2026 Jul-Dec 88.9%+2.4ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+2.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète19 mars 25, 22:06 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
- This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
- Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
- Clarifications:
- Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
- The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment