Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJul-Dec 2026 43.7%-7.1ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-8.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
25 sept. 25, 22:16 UTC25 sept. 26, 22:14 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will OpenAI release a new model before October?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketRègles
Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.
- Must be a real, new model by SSI — not a white‑labeled/rebranded external LLM.
- Requires third‑party confirmation of the model’s existence and that it is new.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will SSI release their first model? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Jul-Dec 2026 à 44% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will SSI release their first model? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will SSI release their first model? doit être résolu le 25 septembre 2026.
- Comment When will SSI release their first model? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2025-09-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Release can be to a limited group (e.g., a closed beta), not only a public launch.