Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2027 41.3%-9.1ptEn tête parmi 17 options
Prévisionnistes
36
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-9.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 août 25, 19:45 UTC31 déc. 26, 20:44 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by which date?
PolymarketOcarina of Time remake release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsGPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.
- Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2027 à 41% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date sera-t-il résolu ?
- OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.