Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore November 2026 73.9%En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
8 août 25, 19:50 UTC31 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date
Manifold MarketsNext Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by which date?
PolymarketGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiGTA VI Online: Release date
KalshiClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRègles
Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @OchSUnInIq (this market)
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before November 2026 à 74% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date sera-t-il résolu ?
- Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date doit être résolu le 31 octobre 2026.
- Comment Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Minor changes to the name, such as 'Qwen 4.0', or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market.