When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? ?

Manifold Markets cote Q3-Q4 2024 à 93.1% au 28 octobre 2026.

Quand When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? sera-t-il résolu ?

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Comment When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? est-il réglé ?

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : "Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.

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KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+17.9pt48%
• Claude-17.3pt42.9%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt6.5%

+5 résultats de plus

Volume total

14,2 M €

Volume 24h

149,4 k €

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+1.2pt95%
• December 15,+1.0pt93%
• November 30,-2.0pt87%

+15 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-5.0pt27.7%
• $2.0–$2.25T+1.6pt23.8%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.7pt15.8%

+7 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google+17.5pt53.6%
• Anthropic-18.0pt39.2%
• OpenAI-0.3pt5.2%

+12 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+4.7pt98%
• Anthropic-4.1pt2%
• Alibaba-0.1pt0%

+18 résultats de plus

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

• <$1T-7.5pt22%
• $1.25T–$1.5T+1.2pt20%
• $1.5T–$1.75T+1.9pt19%

+5 résultats de plus

• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?
• Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Moonshot AI share of spend on Oct 28, 2026 (Vercel)