Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.1%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 39 minutes
3 nov. 25, 14:03 UTC1 janv. 27, 08:43 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a Minecraft Java Marketplace by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWhen will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the complete source code of Minecraft: Java Edition is released under an open source license (OSI-approved or equivalent) that permits free use, modification, and redistribution.
- The source code must be publicly available in its entirety, not merely select libraries or components.
- Resolution can be verified via official Minecraft/Microsoft announcements or the official GitHub repository.
- This market resolves NO if the game remains closed-source or if only partial libraries continue to be released without the full codebase becoming open source.
- Original Minecraft creator Notch stated he would release the game source code as open source once sales start dying and a minimum time has passed.
