Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleQ4 2026 14.2%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 nov. 25, 18:57 UTC31 déc. 30, 18:50 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketRègles
I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES when anyone (public release, not a closed beta) can book and complete a fully driverless Waymo ride from San Francisco International Airport (SFO) to Lighthaven, located in Berkeley, CA.
- Resolution requires:
- Waymo offering fully autonomous service (no safety driver) at SFO for passenger pickups
- Waymo's service area extending to Lighthaven in Berkeley
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-5.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 96,6 k €
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Q4 2026 à 14% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment When can I take a fully driverless Waymo from SFO to Lighthaven? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I want to interact with as few people as possible before getting to Lighthaven