What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
One-OffSanté et médecineScience1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 18:45 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle70-79% 38.7%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+16.9 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète15 mars 24, 21:17 UTC2 déc. 26, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Manifold MarketsWill molecular jackhammers have at least 50% tumour-free efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trials?
Manifold MarketsHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRègles
The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.
- Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
- Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2025).
- Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
- 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
- More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
