Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellePuberty blockers for minors with gender dysphoria 75%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard17 sept. 25, 06:06 UTC1 janv. 27, 06:41 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What's true about Charlie Kirk's shooter
Manifold MarketsWill it be confirmed that the Charlie Kirk shooter played Helldivers 2 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government declare a new holiday in memory of Charlie Kirk?
Manifold MarketsWhich method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market (https://manifold.markets/Marnix/what-was-the-political-lean-of-the) has a very active and spirited discussion of whether Kirk's murderer was on the left or the right in general.
- But, since he was described as having been "very political" in recent years, I have decided to make a market about his opinions on a number of specific issues which tend to divide the United States electorate.
- As of market creation, I would resolve most of these N/A! I will give disproportionate weight to statements made in the past year.
- I'm setting the close date as 12/31/25, but I will very likely adjust it to coincide with the end of his trial, because I would guess most of the relevant information will come out before then.
- Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close date has been updated to 12/31/26 (previously 12/31/25).
- The actual close will be adjusted to coincide with the end of the shooter's trial, as most relevant information is expected to come out during the trial proceedings.