Prévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2026-12-01 89%+19.6ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+19.6 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
9 sept. 26, 17:41 UTC16 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release a smartwatch in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiRègles
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 93,6 k €
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 45,2 k €
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date ?
- Manifold Markets cote Before 2026-12-01 à 89% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date sera-t-il résolu ?
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date doit être résolu le 16 décembre 2026.
- Comment 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.