Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 53.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète20 nov. 25, 09:43 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential), as of the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA/Wood Mackenzie’s “US Solar Market Insight” (YIR or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar capacity was ≥ 470 GWdc, the market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 470 GWdc, the market resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
Adoption
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- Yes4%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
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- Yes5%
- Volume total
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- Volume 24h
- 56,6 €
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- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Volume total
- 18 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSLinux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.
- Yes57.9%
- No42.1%
- Volume total
- 1,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
KALSHIRamp AI Index adoption rate in August
- Above 59%65%
- Above 57%25.8%
- Above 58%9.3%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 21,3 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?
- No88.9%
- Yes11.1%
- Volume total
- 645,1 €
- Volume 24h
- —
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- Will electric vehicles account for a majority of new light vehicles purchased in the United States by 2030?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 54% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.