Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 65.5%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète20 nov. 25, 09:43 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity triples over 2025-2035?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWill total solar capacity exceed 6TW at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill this market reach 100 unique traders by October 26, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential), as of the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA/Wood Mackenzie’s “US Solar Market Insight” (YIR or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar capacity was ≥ 470 GWdc, the market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 470 GWdc, the market resolves NO.