Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 65.3%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète26 juin 26, 18:16 UTC30 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I bring someone onto Manifold Markets who creates 100 questions by August 28, 2028 (8/28/28)?
Manifold MarketsWhich year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold Markets (or its web host) partner with Project Glasswing to bolster its own cybersecurity by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsTech sector AI adoption in September
KalshiWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
KalshiFinance AI adoption in September
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, between June 26, 2026, and October 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT, I successfully convince an individual whom I know or met in person (IRL) to create a Manifold Markets account and follow my profile.
- To resolve YES, the following conditions must be met:
- The individual must be someone I have interacted with in person (not an online-only contact).
- They must register a new Manifold Markets account and follow my profile during the specified timeframe.
- I will post the username of the referred user in the market comments to provide verification.
Marchés ouverts
AdoptionKALSHIWill Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
- No91%
- Yes+5.3pt9%
- Volume total
- 159,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 350,7 €
KALSHIFinance AI adoption in September
- Above 73%88%
- Above 73.25%0%
- Above 73.5%0%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 172,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 172,1 €
POLYMARKETOver 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,3 €
KALSHIHealthcare AI adoption in September
- Above 43%87%
- Above 43.5%0%
- Above 43.75%0%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 43 €
- Volume 24h
- 43 €
POLYMARKETUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- 52,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 €
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?
- No84.6%
- Yes15.4%
- Volume total
- 1,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- —
- Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
- xAI corporate adoption rate in September
- Tech sector AI adoption in September
- Hospitality AI adoption in September
- Ramp AI Index adoption rate in September
- Manufacturing AI adoption in September
- Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
- Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?
- Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.
- Will 50% of US commuters travel via autonomous vehicles by 2030?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26? doit être résolu le 30 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will I get someone IRL to follow me onto Manifold Markets between today and 10/30/26? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria