Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 75.8%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète22 nov. 25, 08:34 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiIndonesia and Laos supply >40% of US solar imports by June 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Georgia regulators approve 4 more gigawatts of generating capacity?
KalshiWill at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 80% for 2026?
Manifold MarketsConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 710 GWdc before January 1st 2036.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial & industrial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed as of the end of calendar year 2035.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Solar Market Insight (2035 Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 710 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was < 710 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
Marchés ouverts
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million+1.0pt98%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 125,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHIConnecticut multifamily housing permits in 2026
- Above 3,500 units-1.0pt88%
- Above 4,000 units-4.0pt66%
- Above 4,500 units-18.0pt30%
+5 résultats de plus
KALSHIPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.260099%
- Above 4.265099%
- Above 4.270099%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 17,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 17,4 k €
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No93%
- Yes-2.0pt7%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 16 k €
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHousing units authorized in Vermont in 2026
- Above 1,700 units-4.0pt82%
- Above 1,600 units-11.0pt80%
- Above 1,800 units-5.0pt68%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US solar capacity triples over 2025-2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 76% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US solar capacity triples over 2025-2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US solar capacity triples over 2025-2035? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2034.
- Comment US solar capacity triples over 2025-2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 710 GWdc before January 1st 2036.