Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 76.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 38 minutes
22 nov. 25, 08:34 UTC31 déc. 34, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWill total solar capacity exceed 6TW at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Georgia regulators approve 4 more gigawatts of generating capacity?
KalshiTexas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 26, 2026
KalshiRègles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 710 GWdc before January 1st 2036.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial & industrial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed as of the end of calendar year 2035.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s U.S. Solar Market Insight (2035 Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 710 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states that year‑end 2035 U.S. solar PV capacity was < 710 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
