Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.2%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète21 nov. 25, 13:10 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 500 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” refers to the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed by the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s US Solar Market Insight (Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 500 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 500 GWdc, this market resolves NO.
