Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election 90.2%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
55
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète26 mai 24, 12:05 UTC28 avr. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
0.2%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Rishi Sunak still be an MP by the time the next general election is called?
Manifold MarketsWill a "lifetime smoking ban" become law in the UK before the next General Election after July 2024?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a UK General Election in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the next UK general election?
KalshiIn what year will the next UK general election be held?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRègles
The UK will have a general election on 4th July.
- The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire).
- He is expected to win his seat but lose his majority.
- At this point, it is expected that he will resign or be removed as the leader of the Conservative Party with the new leader of the party taking over as the Leader of the Opposition (assuming they’re even the second biggest party - see @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 )
- Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP once he steps down? He recently promised in an interview on Loose Women that he would, but this was the same interview where he said that there would not be a summer election!
- If Sunak is returned to Parliament and serves out his full term as an MP (whether or not he is still PM or LOTO, and even if there is a very early election), this market will resolve to the YES option.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election? doit être résolu le 28 avril 2028.
- Comment UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The UK will have a general election on 4th July.