Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNone 65%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard25 oct. 25, 11:47 UTC31 déc. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Trump attempts to use AGI to stay in power after his second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be ranked as the worst US President by the end of his second term according to CSPAN's Survey?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRègles
Which role or mechanism will Trump use after his Second Term to continue exerting significant influence over U.S. executive decisions?
- President: Trump serves a third term as President, maintaining full constitutional authority.
- the named outcome: Trump holds a high-level position formally coordinating or overseeing the cabinet.
- In this scenario, the actual President (for example Vance) would delegate day-to-day executive management to Trump.
- The role would be comparable to a Chancellor or Prime Minister, giving him direct influence over cabinet-level decisions.
- the named outcome: Trump would hold a cabinet-level position (e.g., Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense), formally under the President.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trumps Power After His Second Term? ?
- Manifold Markets cote None à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trumps Power After His Second Term? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trumps Power After His Second Term? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Trumps Power After His Second Term? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Which role or mechanism will Trump use after his Second Term to continue exerting significant influence over U.S. executive decisions?