The first fully autonomous vehicle will be sold to consumers in 2026 — but it won’t be from Tesla
TechOne-Off2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.6%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
2 janv. 26, 07:44 UTC10 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from Oakland to SF or back by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will it first be possible to rent an autonomous vehicle to drive between cities in North America without a license?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous vehicle (Level 5) be commercially available to consumers by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a deuterated caffeine drink be sold to consumers by 2035?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 22 - October 24, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.