Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95%
Prévisionnistes
35
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
10 oct. 25, 21:06 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Manifold Markets🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
Manifold MarketsWill a federal court block a major state AI law before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Sorry State of AI X-Risk Advocacy, and Th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
Kalshi[Add options] Which of these highly unlikely things will happen to me this century?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This resolves to YES if at least 4 of the following markets resolve to YES.
- It resolves to NO if 3 or fewer of these markets resolve to YES.
- Only markets fully resolving to YES count - any other result does not count.
- https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai1-a-major-retailer-reports-5-of
- https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai2-a-major-ai-lab-leans-back-int
- https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai3-openended-agents-make-a-meani
