Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2027-01-08 (8-Jan-2027) 94.7%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 35 minutes
13 juil. 26, 17:34 UTC9 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be alive through the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiWhich countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This description was partly generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- Each date option represents a specific calendar day in Eastern Time (ET).
- This is an independent multiple-choice market.
- YES: Donald Trump is alive for any portion of the specified calendar date, measured in Eastern Time (ET).
- NO: Donald Trump passed away before the start of the specified calendar date (00:00 ET), or has already been officially declared deceased prior to that date.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour On which days in 2027+ will Donald Trump be alive? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2027-01-08 (8-Jan-2027) à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand On which days in 2027+ will Donald Trump be alive? sera-t-il résolu ?
- On which days in 2027+ will Donald Trump be alive? doit être résolu le 9 janvier 2027.
- Comment On which days in 2027+ will Donald Trump be alive? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This description was partly generated by AI.