Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 59.4%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard16 mai 24, 22:03 UTC1 janv. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Joe Biden be alive to see 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsOn which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiRègles
Resolved YES if Trump is alive on 1/1/2030
- Resolved NO if Trump passes away before 12/31/2029
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Donald Trump be alive to see 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolved YES if Trump is alive on 1/1/2030