Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 95%
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
7 févr. 24, 23:14 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
On which days in 2026 will Donald Trump be alive?
Manifold MarketsOn which days in 2027+ will Donald Trump be alive?
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be alive on December 31 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 332?
KalshiRègles
This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026.
- The health and longevity of former presidents are subjects of significant public interest, particularly given their roles in shaping national and global policy.
- Factors for consideration in this market include publicly known details about Trump's health, lifestyle habits, age-related risks, and any statistical life expectancy data pertinent to his demographic profile.
- Participants are urged to approach their analysis and contributions with the utmost respect and decorum.
- Speculative discussions should rely on information that is publicly accessible and should be framed respectfully, avoiding invasive or derogatory commentary.
- The resolution of this market will hinge on verifiable, public evidence concerning Donald Trump's life status as of the specified date.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market aims to assess the likelihood of Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, being alive at the close of 31 December 2026.